Prediksi Kebangrutan Perusahaan Energy dan Basic Materials dengan Notasi Khusus Menggunakan Model Zmijewski dan Grover

Abstract

Abstract

This research is motivated by the increasing risk of financial distress and bankruptcy in energy and basic materials sector companies in Indonesia, which is reflected in the large number of companies with the special notation "X" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study aims to analyze the differences in prediction results and effectiveness between the Zmijewski model (X-Score) and the Grover model (G-Score) in predicting bankruptcy potential among companies in the Energy and Basic Materials sectors that hold a special notation “X” and are listed in the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) as of December 2024. The research employs a quantitative descriptive method using secondary data derived from the annual financial reports of 16 sampled companies out of a total population of 44. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS version 25, with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test applied for hypothesis testing. The results indicate a significant difference between the two models in predicting bankruptcy. The Grover model achieved an accuracy rate of 88.75%, higher than the Zmijewski model at 81.25%, making it more effective for assessing the financial condition of companies operating in dynamic sectors that are highly sensitive to global economic fluctuations. This study suggests that variations in financial ratio structures and methodological approaches contribute to differences in bankruptcy prediction outcomes.

Keywords: Prediction; Accuracy; Bankruptcy; Zmijewski; Grover.

Abstrak

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh meningkatnya risiko financial distress dan kebangkrutan pada perusahaan sektor energi dan basic materials di Indonesia, yang tercermin dari banyaknya perusahaan dengan notasi khusus “X” di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis perbedaan hasil prediksi dan efektivitas antara model Zmijewski (X-Score) dan model Grover (G-Score) dalam memprediksi potensi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan sektor Energy dan Basic Materials yang berstatus notasi khusus “X” serta terdaftar di Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) per Desember 2024. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah deskriptif kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan tahunan 16 perusahaan sampel dari total 44 populasi. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan SPSS versi 25 dengan uji Kolmogorov-Smirnov dan Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya perbedaan signifikan antara kedua model dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan. Model Grover memiliki tingkat akurasi 88,75%, lebih tinggi dibandingkan model Zmijewski sebesar 81,25%, sehingga dinilai lebih efektif untuk menilai kondisi keuangan perusahaan pada sektor yang dinamis dan rentan terhadap fluktuasi ekonomi global. Penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa perbedaan struktur rasio keuangan dan pendekatan metodologis memengaruhi hasil prediksi kebangkrutan.

Kata Kunci: Prediksi; Akurasi; Kebangkrutan; Zmijewski; Grover.